9. Don’t work on long-term AGI x-risk now

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Suppose you believe AGI will be invented in 200 years, and, if it is invented before the alignment problem is solved, everyone will be dead forever. Then you probably shouldn’t work on AGI Safety right now.

On the one hand, our ability to work on AGI Safety will increase as we get closer to making AGI. It is preposterous to think such a problem can be solved by purely reasoning from first principles. No science makes progress without observation, not even pure mathematics. Trying to solve AGI risk now is as absurd as trying to solve aging before the invention of the microscope.

On the other hand, spending resources now is much more expensive than spending resources in 100 years. Assuming a 4% annual growth rate of the economy, it would be around 50 times as expensive.1In all honesty, I don’t actually believe in unlimited exponential economic growth. But my job here is to attack the AI Safety premise, not to accurately represent my own beliefs.

Solving AGI Safety becomes easier over time, and relatively cheaper on top of that. Hence you should not work on AGI Safety if you think it can wait.

Which companies are adversaries?

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I’ve been looking on and off for mp3 players for a couple months. I wanted a device with proper playlist support, bluetooth, and sufficient battery and storage capacity. It had to be cheap and with a UI that does not make me wish for death.

I ended up buying a $30 second hand Nokia Lumia 650. I deleted everything except the music player and maps app, downloaded maps of every country I might reasonably ever visit and the complete contents of Wikivoyage, copied my music onto it from my pc and put it permanently in airplane mode. It is a bit too laggy, but other than that I like this setup a lot.

But more important than my love for Windows Phone, is my hate for Android and iOS. I dislike the former for its role in the global surveillance economy and its butt-ugly interface. I dislike the latter because of its adversarial pricing model and excessively walled garden.

I don’t want to get my dinner from the pathologically neoliberal butcher, the dominant-strategy-playing externality-indifferent brewer or the stalking, price-discriminating, search-engine-optimizing baker. Their antithesis probably consist of the local organic farmer’s market, self-hosted FOSS software and artisan everything, but I do like economies of scale.

I’m still searching for the synthesis. For now, I’ll start with trying to minimize my interactions with companies who relate to their users or customers in a very adversarial manner