7. Links #2: AI Safety-critical reading list

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So, I started the anti-AI Safety blogging series because I would be a good fit for the cause area as described by e.g., 80,000 Hours and it seemed reasonable to think through the arguments myself. As it turns out, they don’t stand up to scrunity. I decided to keep on writing for a bit anyway, as all AI Risk enthusiasts seem to be unaware of the counterarguments. I thought there was nothing out there in writing. Boy was I wrong.

This is a non-exhaustive list of links relating to AI Safety skepticism. For more, check out the similar reading lists by Marcus Vindig and by Alexander Kruel. Overlap between these lists is minimal and restricted to a couple of particularly good resources.

Rodney Brooks writes from MIT Technology Review of the seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI. If you find a paywall, either clear your cookies or view a less edited version on Brooks’ website. His other essays on Super Intelligence are also well-worth checking out.

Wolfgang Schwarz published his referee report of Yudkowsky (MIRI) and Soares’ (MIRI) Functional Decision Theory. I’ll quote a single paragraph, which I think accurately illustrates the whole review: “The standards for deserving publication in academic philosophy are relatively simple and self-explanatory. A paper should make a significant point, it should be clearly written, it should correctly position itself in the existing literature, and it should support its main claims by coherent arguments. The paper I read sadly fell short on all these points, except the first. (It does make a significant point.)”

Ben Garfinkel gave a talk at EA Global 2018 titled “How sure are we about this AI stuff?”, calling for EA’s to be more critical about AI Safety as a cause area. Garfinkel knows his audience well, as everything is phrased so as to make EA’s think without ruffling feathers

Oren Etzioni writes in MIT Technology Review about the survey data Bostrom talks about in Superintelligence and offers alternative data that suggest a very different picture

Maciej Cegłowski‘s talks are always excellent and “Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People” is no exception. (via)

EA Forum user Fods12 wrote a five-part critique of Superintelligence. They hit on a number of good objections. The posts sadly got little quality engagement, indicative of both the writing quality and of the rest of the EA Forum’s userbase.

Even transhumanists can be reasonable, like Monica Anderson who writes Problem Solved: Unfriendly AI.

Ernest Davis wrote a review of SuperIntelligence, touching on some of the key weaknesses in Bostrom’s arguments but insufficiently elaborating on each of his arguments. MIRI published a response to the review which I think mostly nitpicks Davis’ phrasing instead of actually engaging with his objections, which to be fair might be the best you can do if you don’t have any better source of exposition on these arguments than Davis’ review. In short, Davis’ review isn’t super good, but MIRI’s response is much worse.

Neil Lawrence critiques Bostrom’s Superintelligence. If I had to excerpt a single representative line, it would be “I welcome the entry of philosophers to this debate, but I don’t think Superintelligence is contributing as positively as it could have done to the challenges we face. In its current form many of its arguments are distractingly irrelevant.”

Magnus Vindig writes Why Altruists Should Perhaps Not Not Prioritize Artificial Intelligence: A Lengthy Critique, in which he tackles most of the standard EA arguments and points out their hidden assumptions. Topics include, but are not limited to, the incessantly cited AI researcher survey predictions, bad Moore’s law-type arguments, slight-of-hand changing definitions of intelligence, the difficulty of alignment rising for future systems compared to current ones and the enormous experience we have with present-day systems, Instrumental Convergence being under argued, the practical value of being super intelligent. He does not rigorously take down every argument to the full extent possible, but that is probably good because the blog post is 22k words as is. Vindig also wrote Is AI Alignment Possible? in which he argues that the answer is no, both in principle and in practice.

Richard Loosemoore has the right amount of derision that AI Risk deserves, which is different from the right amount of derision for convincing the worriers that they’re wrong. One person who was not convinced is Rob Bensiger of MIRI.

Bill Hibbard has an email exchange with Yudkowsky in which he argues that a Superintelligence would not conflate smiling human faces with nano-scale depictions of such. The whole exchange is kind of predictable and not too informative.

On a related note, Nicholas Agar wrote a paper titled “Don’t Worry about Superintelligence” in which he argues that the first AIs with sophisticated agency are inherently likely to be friendly.